Fearless predictions for the 2009-2010 economy

(Forgive me for ending the week on this note, but as they say, “It is what it is.”)

Regular readers know that I monitor a number of industry and economic indices and indicators each month, as well as subscribe to reports from several economists and industry analysts.  A fairly clear consensus has emerged over the last 4-6 weeks as to how the economy will perform from both a domestic and global standpoint during the next 12-18 months…

In this post I’ll try to capture my sense of what’s in store for us, and will keep the analysis at the 40,000 foot level.

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Unemployment: As recently as the spring of 2007 the U.S. unemployment level was at 4.5%; today it’s at 6.5%.  A growing chorus of forecasters indicates it could go as high as 9% during the next 24 months.  I’ll stick with the forecast from MAPI:  2009: 7.7%; 2010: 8.3%; 2011: 7.8%.  The Manufacturer’s Alliance is suggesting it will be no lower than 6.5% in 2013!

GDP: GDP growth in 2008 will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1½%. (Q4 is likely to be horrid, by the way.)  Kiplinger has consistently retreated from rosier forecasts over the last 6 months, and is now forecasting GDP growth of 0% for 2009.  I don’t believe that’s realistic given the financial sector collapse,  consumer confidence being at historically low levels and the fact that the housing market continues to seek bottom.  Other forecasters have 2009 at ~-1%, and I think it will be at least that negative. GDP should rebound somewhat in 2010, perhaps growing at 1 to 1½%

Housing Starts: The collapse of the housing market has so much to do with our current economic malaise. A few years ago starts numbered over 2 million on an annualized basis.  As of September of this year, starts were at an annualized rate of 817K; next year starts should bottom out in the high 600K range - somewhere in the first half of the year - and will rebound to the 900K to 1M range in 2010.

Existing Home Sales: ~5.4M in 2008; ~5M in 2009.  Won’t return to “normal” levels of ~6M until 2011.

Imported Crude price/bbl: Forecasts are all over the place on crude. I’ve seen 2009 forecasts as low as $55 per barrel and as high as $85.  I believe crude will average somewhere in the range of $65 to $70 per barrel for 2009, and will increase to $75 to $80 per barrel in 2010. A positive! Gas should be reasonably inexpensive for the next couple of years (the EIA is projecting the average price per gal of gas @ $2.37 for 2009; Kiplinger, $2.25)

Inflation: From Kiplinger:

“In addition to energy, prices of major items are declining, including apparel, new and used cars, airline tickets and hotels. But there are increases: in rents, education costs and prices of medical services.”

The CPI will likely grow by about 1% - 1.5% next year.

In short:  we are in for a protracted recession.

What Can I Do??

I’ve written about what the average person can do to survive a recession - click here for a recent post - and will simply touch upon a few basic strategies here:

• Cut ALL unnecessary spending. If you don’t need it, don’t buy it. If you think you need it, give it a 24 hour - or longer - sanity check
• Fund your emergency fund as though your life depends upon it
• Hone your job skills and add value to your organization
• Network like crazy
• Develop alternate sources of income - a second job, a blog, sell stuff on eBay, etc.
• Don’t panic. This too will pass…  it’s going to take some time, however

Hang in there. And if you have strategies you’ve put in motion during the economic slowdown, please share them by commenting! Thanks for taking the time to stop by and read this; I appreciate it!

Image:  Face It @ Flickr

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If you’re a dedicated gadget freak you really need to check out the November issue of Popular Mechanics - it features their Top 10 Gadgets of 2008.  There are a few items on their list that are now on my wish list:

1. The first is the result of a collaboration between a couple of University of Washington researchers and Microsoft’s Live Labs. It’s called Photosynth; as the name implies, the software analyzes multiple images of the same subject, identifies common data points, and morphs them into a browsable 3D model. The software is free and it is absolutely fascinating to explore.  NOTE that the software requires Windows XP or Vista, and you need a reasonable amount of memory for it to work properly. You can check out Photosynth here; click on the link below to view the Popular Mechanics video on the subject (a link to the entire P.M. article appears later in this post) –

Microsoft Photosynth Video

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2. The second item on the P.M. list that I think is really intriguing is the Livescribe Pulse Smartpen. Smart pens have been around for a while, but most should have borne a Fisher-Price label. Not the case with the Livescribe - it works well and is loaded with features. Not cheap at $149, but take a few moments to view the following video - it’ll make you a believer!

Livescribe Smartpen

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3. Coming up #3 on my gadget wish list is the Potenco PCG1 Power Generator. Much like the emergency radio I’ve written about here, the Potenco is a portable power generator that’s hand powered - by a pull cord, vs. the crank that’s common on emergency radios. Pull the cord for 2 minutes and you have 40 minutes’ worth of power. Another neat feature is the fact that while the AC is on, you can plug this unit in to pre-charge it. Click on the link which follows to see the Pop Mechanics video on this product:

Potenco PCG1 Video

Check out the entire article online by clicking here. If you’ve uncovered any great gadgets recently, please join the discussion by commenting!

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This article appeared on the Huffington Post (yes, that Huffington Post) yesterday, and it does a good job of running down several tips for what to do when traveling home this holiday season; worth a quick read: click here for the article.

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Having a wonderful time while dining out depends upon many things: ambiance, the food, service, the quality of your table, and of course your tablemates.  Having a great experience needn’t be completely up to chance, however…  by employing a few simple strategies you can greatly increase your chances of having a memorable dining experience.

Having dined at hundreds of restaurants across the country over the last few decades, I’ve picked up a few pointers and secrets that may very well help you have a great dining experience…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Keeping track of the changes in airlines’ baggage policies & fees can be tough; to assist you, I’ve assembled this handy summary.  Just click on the airline links below for further details.  NOTE that all airlines charge additional fees for oversized and overweight baggage, and for sports equipment.  Check each airline’s website for details; links are provided below.
Air Canada
AirTran Airways
American Airlines
Continental Airlines
Delta
Frontier
JetBlue
Mexicana
Northwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines
Spirit Airlines
United
US Airways

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Air Canada:

• Under the new policy, customers who purchase tickets on Air Canada which carry a cancellation penalty, may check two bags for free. NOTE that fees will be charged for bags which exceed weight guidelines.
• This policy applies for travel within Canada and between Canada and continental U.S. including Hawaii.
• Click here for complete details regarding the new baggage policy posted on carrier’s Web site.

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Over the last couple of months I’ve enjoyed a couple of bottles of 2006 Wild Horse Pinot Noir. Full bodied, plummy with a dash of peppery flavor, this mid priced California pinot has become a favorite. Last Sunday evening (November 2nd,) having enjoyed a glass the night before at a local restaurant, I went to wine.com to see what their price was on the wine….

Read the rest of this entry »

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WP Super Edit

If you feel constrained by the normal text editor in WordPress and would like to add some pizzazz to your posts, you definitely should check out the WP Super Edit plugin!

You can change your type font, size, color and style. There’s a handy undo feature. You can insert text anchors with the click of a button. Emoticons are a click away.   You can highlight text. The possibilities are quite remarkable.

Another neat feature is the fact that you can insert custom tables into posts.

Insert lines:

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Switch to ^superscript or _subscript with a click of a button!

Here’s an image of the WP Super Edit text editor:

Another incredibly handy feature is a “Find and Replace” function - fantastic if you happen to misspell a word or need to replace a word with another.

You can also insert the time or date:

2008-11-11

…with a single click.

I’m really just scratching the surface here; if you’d like to see more or download the plugin, click here. This plugin really enables you to add a bit more visual vibrancy to your posts… check it out!

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If you can be flexible about your travel plans, definitely check out Travelzoo. The site doesn’t actually sell packages, but captures the best deals from a variety of airlines, hotels, car rental firms, and travel websites.

Their “Top 20″ list is is a compilation of the best 20 online travel deals of the week. The Top 20 list has more than 12 million subscribers; you can sign up in a matter of moments or if you prefer not to share your email address, the feature is available online (see image above.)

If you’re truly a last minute traveler, check out their “Last Minute” feature. It captures the best travel deals across the nation for the next 3-4 weeks.

Finally, when you register with TZ, each time you visit the site you’ll notice their “Deals Near You” feature.

Click on it and you’ll be treated to up to 15 deals within a mileage radius that you can specify. Here’s what the site was showing this week for Chicago:

I’ve checked online reviews of Travelzoo and they have been quite positive. Although I haven’t used the site myself, it certainly seems worth a look. If you’ve had experience with this site, please comment!

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